The baseball season is young, but already, we're witnessing a fascinating transformation among some pitchers. The question on everyone's mind is: Will these improvements translate into success? Here's a deep dive into six pitchers who have shown significant progress in their 'Stuff+', and what it means for their future performance.
Aaron Nola: Velocity and Left-Handed Struggles
Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, has seen his Stuff+ numbers improve, but his overall performance remains inconsistent. While his velocity has increased, with a notable rise in fastball speed, his ERA remains high. The real challenge lies in his performance against left-handed batters, where he struggles with a .311/.396/.515 line. This trend has been ongoing for five years, indicating a deeper issue. Nola's Stuff+ numbers against lefties are concerning, with his four-seamer, the pitch he should rely on, being pummeled. This has led to a shift in his pitch selection, favoring cutters over four-seamers. Despite these improvements, Nola's fantasy value is questionable due to his struggles against left-handed batters.
Emmet Sheehan: Velocity and Pitch Mix
Emmet Sheehan, a right-handed pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has experienced a rollercoaster ride in terms of velocity. His Stuff+ improvement is attributed to adding velocity to his four-seamer and refining his slider. Sheehan's pitch mix has also evolved, with a focus on de-emphasizing the changeup and increasing the usage of his slider. However, left-handed batters slug .496 against him, highlighting the need for further adjustments. Despite these challenges, Sheehan's overall trends are positive, and he has favorable matchups ahead, making him a decent start in those matchups.
Noah Cameron: Pitch Changes and Consistency
Noah Cameron, a left-handed pitcher for the Kansas City Royals, has made significant pitch changes. His curveball and slider have improved with added velocity and break, while his changeup has lost some velocity. Cameron's four-seam velocity has stabilized around 93, a slight improvement from last year. With three plus pitches and good command, he is projected to have a high-3s ERA and a good WHIP, making him a promising prospect.
Jack Flaherty: Velocity and Slider Improvement
Jack Flaherty, a right-handed pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, has shown wild velocity swings, with three of his five best velocities coming in recent starts. His slider velocity has also increased, contributing to a higher whiff percentage and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. Flaherty's performance against the Guardians, White Sox, and Astros in the upcoming schedule is promising. However, his fastball velocity remains a concern, as it has been inconsistent, casting doubt on the sustainability of his recent improvements.
Sean Burke: Fastball and Slider Refinement
Sean Burke, a right-handed pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, has a solid fastball as his cornerstone. He has improved the pitches around it, particularly his slider, adding horizontal and vertical break. Burke's slider velocity is now above average, and his whiff rate is in its best six-week stretch of his career. His command has always been better than Shane Smith's, and he is becoming an every-start fantasy baseball option. Burke's development is a testament to the White Sox coaching and development staff's success.
Justin Wrobleski: Slider and Changeup Refinement
Justin Wrobleski, a left-handed pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has made significant improvements in his slider and changeup. His slider is two ticks harder, and his changeup has a new split-change grip, contributing to his success. Wrobleski's fastball locations have also improved, with better velocity and shape. His strikeout rate has increased, and his command has always been strong. The Dodgers will rely on him throughout the season, and his performance is expected to improve in the rankings despite some mediocre ERA projections.
